AN EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF FLOODING ON REAL ESTATE VALUE IN LAGOS ISLAND- (2007-2024)

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to quantitatively assess the long-term consequences of flooding on real estate values in Oniru and Lekki Phase 1, Lagos, Nigeria, between 2007 and 2024.

Methodology: The population considered for the study was practicing Estate Surveying and Valuation firms within the study area in Lagos State. A systematic random sampling technique was adopted to administer questionnaire to a sample size of 55 for the study; out of which 48 were retrieved, representing 87% response rate. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, mean item score, trend analysis and linear regression model.

Findings: The study explored the degree of influence of flood occurrence on land and building value in the study area. Empirical findings showed that similar to Oniru, Lekki Phase I shows a positive trend in rental values, indicating that the area remains attractive despite flooding risks. Oniru further demonstrates resilience to flooding impacts, maintaining an upward trajectory in rental values. However, the impact on land value and traffic are severe.

Implications: The study reveals that, though flooding events have had a negative impact on property values in the short term, the long-term trend suggests resilience in both Oniru and Lekki Phase 1. It therefore emphasizes the need for robust flood management strategies, including improved drainage systems and embankments to prevent property value loss and man-hour loss in traffic. Policymakers, builders and urban planners should prioritize investments in infrastructure and community resilience to mitigate the adverse effects of flooding. Additionally, property owners, investors and the construction industry should consider the long-term implications of climate change, and incorporate flood risk into their decision-making processes.

Originality/Value: This study contributes to the growing body of literature on the impact of natural disasters on real estate markets, particularly in Victoria Island and Lekki Phase 1. The study has further shown the spatial variations of flooding impact on different areas, indicating the level of vulnerability of the different locations and impact on property values. It has also shown the long- and short-term effect of flooding, and the overall resilience of the real estate market in the study location.